Worldcoin (WLD) price has declined below $1.20, plunging 90% of WLD holders into losses. On-chain analysis explores the critical factors behind this sharp decline and the chances of an imminent price rebound.
Worldcoin’s (WLD) price is now down over 56% from its all-time high of $2.50 (excluding price at launch) recorded at the start of August. Large institutional investors make desperate efforts to prop up the price. But will it be enough to trigger a rebound?
Wordlcoin Price Struggles as Retail Adoption Falls Flat
The Worldcoin project has undoubtedly attracted the global media spotlight. However, retail demand for the WLD token has faltered. After a strong week post-launch, on-chain data shows that WLD retail adoption has headed downhill from there.
According to the IntoTheBlock chart below, Worldcoin started strong with 2,270 active addresses carrying out transactions on July 24. However, as of August 31 that figure has now dwindled to just 137 active wallet addresses. This represents a staggering 94% decline in network activity.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Sinks | Wallet Addresses stats, September 2023 | Source: IntoTheBlock
The Active Addresses metric tracks retail adoption by aggregating the number of unique wallet addresses carrying out transactions daily. As observed above, the 94% decline in Active Addresses suggests that WLD retail adoption has been unimpressive. This echoes regulators’ concerns about data privacy and a lack of clear incentives and utility for users.
The correlation with the network activity decline suggests that faltering retail adoption is one of the critical factors behind the WLD price slump.
It is also important to note that the number of new addresses created has declined by 98%, from 2,260 created at launch to 50 new wallet addresses recorded on August 31.
This suggests tougher times ahead as the WLD token will likely struggle to find new demand in the coming days.
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Whales Are Making Desperate Efforts to Cover Their Positions.
Unlike Worldcoin’s retail, the large institutional investors in the project have continued to double down on their long positions. The Santiment chart below illustrates how crypto whales holding 1 million to 100 million WLD added 5.04 million tokens to their balances over the past week.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Sinks | Whales’ Wallet Balances: Sept 2023 | Source: Santiment
With WLD currently trading around $1.20, the newly acquired tokens are worth a little over $6 million. This suggests that the whales are not looking to jump ship just yet. While the lack of retail adoption currently puts the bears in the driving seat, the whale’s bullish disposition provides a glimmer of hope for a possible rebound.
In conclusion, unless Worldcoin can attract retail demand, the price downtrend will likely continue in the coming days.
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WLD Price Prediction: The Bears Could Force a Move Below $1
In addition to the data trends analyzed above, 90.64% of all Worldcoin holders have now slipped into a loss position. Hence, with dominant momentum across the Worldcoin ecosystem now bearish, there is a high chance that the WLD price will drop below $1.
The Global In/Out of Money Around Price (GIOM) data, which depicts the entry price distribution of the current Worldcoin holders, also confirms this prediction. It, however, underlines that 13 addresses had bought 181.2 million WLD tokens around the average price of $0.66. If the whales continue to buy, they could offer significant support.
But if the retail network activity continues to decline as predicted, Worldcoin price could eventually drop toward $0.50
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Prediction | IOMAP data, Aug 2023 | Source: IntoTheBlock
Conversely, if the bullish whales can turn the tide, they could force an upswing above the $2 range. However, 434 addresses had bought 515 million WLD at the average price of $1.78. If they sell close their positions, Wordlcoin price could enter another retracement.
But if that resistance level gives way, Worldcoin price could promptly reclaim $2.
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