Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating above the $25K support level following the recent drop from the key $30K zone.
However, for the price to reach a new high and break past $30K, there is still much work to do.
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, the price has been rejected from the $25K support level and is trending higher. Yet, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages around the $28K mark are two significant resistance levels that the market should break through for a retest and potential breakout from the $30K zone.
The RSI indicator has also increased above the 50% threshold, indicating that momentum is once again in favor of the buyers.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe demonstrates a clearer picture of the recent price action. The market is currently attempting to break above the upper boundary of the large falling wedge pattern. In case of a successful breakout, the price is likely to rally towards the $30K resistance level in the short term, as this is a classic bullish reversal pattern.
The RSI’s recent bullish divergence also validates the reversal scenario, making another rise toward the $30K zone more probable.
Short-Term Holder SOPR
Bitcoin’s price has been decisively rejected from the $30K resistance level and has been trending down. This price decline has affected investors, and analyzing its effects could provide valuable insights.
This chart demonstrates the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Ratio metric or STH SOPR. A 30-day exponential moving average is applied for better visualization. This metric indicates whether short-term holders who have bought their coins in the past 6 months are selling at a profit or a loss on aggregate. Values above 1 show profit realization, while values below 1 indicate realizing losses.
As the chart depicts, the STH SOPR metric has been trending below 1 over the last few weeks following the recent price drop. Therefore, short-term holders are selling their coins below their buying price out of fear and to prevent further losses. While capitulation in the middle of an uptrend is usually a good thing, as weak hands transfer their coins to strong hands, the market is not in a bullish phase yet. Therefore, if this behavior continues, the market might be overwhelmed by the resulting excess supply and drop lower.